As the crypto world eagerly anticipates the outcome of the upcoming election, the impact on the industry remains a topic of intense speculation. With former President Donald Trump touting himself as the “crypto president” and Vice President Kamala Harris taking a more measured approach, the potential effects of their administrations on digital assets are being closely scrutinized.
Harris Presidency Might be Better for Prices
According to VanEck, a Harris presidency could mean the continuation of SEC Chair Gary Gensler's stringent crypto regulations. Coupled with Harris aligning her financial policies with Senator Elizabeth Warren's more regulatory-focused wing of the Democratic party, this scenario could create hurdles for institutional adoption of digital assets. Such a regulatory environment might hinder innovation and growth in the sector, posing challenges to the broader crypto market.
Despite the potential challenges, there is a silver lining for bitcoin enthusiasts. VanEck suggests that under a Harris administration, increased fiscal spending and regulatory tightening could drive more investors to bitcoin as a hedge against economic uncertainty and inflation. This shift could bolster bitcoin's appeal and competitiveness in the digital asset space.
On the other hand, VanEck's analysis indicates that the crypto industry as a whole could benefit more from a second Trump term. A Trump presidency might bring about deregulation and business-friendly policies, creating a favorable environment for crypto entrepreneurs. With less regulatory scrutiny, the industry could experience accelerated growth and innovation.
Bernstein Expects bitcoin to Surge if Trump Wins
While VanEck offers insights into the potential outcomes under different administrations, Bernstein's report paints a different picture. The report projects a price surge for bitcoin, potentially reaching between $80,000 and $90,000 if Trump secures a victory. Conversely, a Harris win could see bitcoin testing the $30,000 to $40,000 range.
Despite varying opinions on the candidates, the broader macroeconomic trend appears to favor bitcoin irrespective of the election results. VanEck predicts that the U.S. will continue down a path of escalating fiscal deficits and increasing national debt, leading to a weaker dollar. Historically, such conditions have favored bitcoin, considered a store of value and hedge against economic instability.
According to investment Bank Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick, bitcoin is poised to end the year at new all-time highs regardless of the election outcome. Kendrick foresees new peaks for bitcoin by the end of 2024, driven by positive factors regardless of the election results. He predicts that a Trump win could push bitcoin to $125,000, while a Harris victory could see it at $75,000.
